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For the second time today I need to get something published before an approaching deadline. This time it is my take on the chances that the various Democratic candidates have of getting the nomination. I want to make sure that I publish this before we get more data from voters voting.
If I had written this earlier there would have been a couple more candidates considered – even with my restriction that I am only covering candidates who have any potential path to the nomination. Many but not all of those who have already dropped out never had any path. Even today there is Tom Steyer who has not dropped out but who, despite his wealth, has no path to the nomination.
For the sake of fairness I will cover the candidates in alphabetical order by last name. I will offer my take on what they would need to win the nomination and my opinion on what they should do based on what happens on Super Tuesday.
Joe Biden
So far Joe Biden has underperformed his expectations. Prior to Nevada I was ready to write him off as no longer a contender but with his recent performance in the debate and his strong showing in the South Carolina polls I conclude that he still likely has a path to the nomination (not a particularly easy one). If Biden does very well in South Carolina he once again becomes a viable candidate but if that isn’t followed up with a strong Super Tuesday (top two or top three) his candidacy should be suspended.
Michael Bloomberg
Normally at this point I would write off a candidate who has not yet received any delegates but Michael Bloomberg isn’t a traditional candidate. He has not participated in any of the primaries before now so getting delegates hasn’t been an option. On the other hand he has functionally unlimited resources and has shown the willingness to use his money for this atypical campaign tactic. The result has been a substantial showing in the national polls. This may not translate into a real chance of winning but we won’t know until we see how he fares on Super Tuesday. If he doesn’t win significant delegates in many of the Super Tuesday states it will be time that he should shudder his campaign and perhaps even endorse another candidate.
Pete Buttigieg
Pete Buttigieg has performed better than would have been expected earlier in the race. He has done very well in the first two states and must be considered a real contender. We are still waiting to see if he can build a national organization and perform at scale. I suspect he will hold his own but if Super Tuesday finds him worse than fourth place it will be time to pull the plug and stop splitting the votes among the more moderate candidates.
Amy Klobuchar
Amy Klobuchar has, like Pete Buttigieg, performed above expectations so far. While I believe she is the best choice in the race I have to be honest that her chance at the nomination is small and requires that she do well on Super Tuesday – top five in results and the results close enough that there isn’t clarity in the race. (If she finishes in the top five but one candidate comes out with an overwhelming lead that won’t be enough.) If the race is still relatively open long enough her path is to stay competitive and get to a brokered convention where she might convince delegates that she is the best option for November. To win without a brokered convention would require that at least two of the B-boys (Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg) drop out early enough for moderate voters to consolidate behind her.
Bernie Sanders
Bernie is the current front-runner and his path to the nomination is clear – simply convince voters of his inevitability and build a strong coalition from those who were previously unsure of his candidacy. I don’t think he is inevitable, nor do I think he is a good choice for the country but that is the path for him to win the nomination. If he gets to a brokered convention he has no guarantees.
Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren has underperformed so far based on the years of expectation that she would run and the large organization that she had in place early. Winning no delegates since Iowa she would need a real surprise showing on Super Tuesday to remain a viable candidate. She probably needs a top two or top three showing on Super Tuesday to have a real path to the nomination. If she doesn’t then her best role for the party would be to keep Bernie from clinching either by siphoning liberal votes/delegates from him or by getting out and endorsing someone else (Amy I would hope).
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