Comments on: Keeping the Race Alive http://www.davidjmiller.org/2008/keeping-the-race-alive/ Recording Bits and Pieces of Heaven in Theory and Practice Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:18:33 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: David http://www.davidjmiller.org/2008/keeping-the-race-alive/comment-page-1/#comment-7372 David Tue, 12 Feb 2008 03:52:43 +0000 http://www.davidjmiller.org/keeping-the-race-alive/#comment-7372 That's true too. That’s true too.

]]> By: Reach Upward http://www.davidjmiller.org/2008/keeping-the-race-alive/comment-page-1/#comment-7364 Reach Upward Mon, 11 Feb 2008 21:50:32 +0000 http://www.davidjmiller.org/keeping-the-race-alive/#comment-7364 That's a good point. But who is on the bottom might give me second thoughts about supporting the person on the top of the ticket. After all, this person could easily become the President following the main candidate. That’s a good point. But who is on the bottom might give me second thoughts about supporting the person on the top of the ticket. After all, this person could easily become the President following the main candidate.

]]> By: David http://www.davidjmiller.org/2008/keeping-the-race-alive/comment-page-1/#comment-7363 David Mon, 11 Feb 2008 21:43:46 +0000 http://www.davidjmiller.org/keeping-the-race-alive/#comment-7363 I think a lot of people think that many people believe that Huckabee does help McCain shore up the base by appealing to the social conservatives. that being said, I think you are right that the narrow appeal of Huckabee is not as helpful as some might think. Those who believe so probably think that social conservatives are the only group uncomfortable with McCain. I enjoyed the WSJ article you linked. It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Personally I don't cast my vote (at all) on who the VP is. If i can't support the Top of the ticket it does not matter who's at the bottom. I think a lot of people think that many people believe that Huckabee does help McCain shore up the base by appealing to the social conservatives. that being said, I think you are right that the narrow appeal of Huckabee is not as helpful as some might think. Those who believe so probably think that social conservatives are the only group uncomfortable with McCain.

I enjoyed the WSJ article you linked. It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Personally I don’t cast my vote (at all) on who the VP is. If i can’t support the Top of the ticket it does not matter who’s at the bottom.

]]> By: Reach Upward http://www.davidjmiller.org/2008/keeping-the-race-alive/comment-page-1/#comment-7361 Reach Upward Mon, 11 Feb 2008 19:37:21 +0000 http://www.davidjmiller.org/keeping-the-race-alive/#comment-7361 I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that McCain will not pick Huckabee as his running mate. While Huckabee might work well for Evangelicals, he clearly does not work well for many outside of that select club. Among Republicans that label themselves conservative or very conservative, Huckabee is just another tax and spend liberal; albeit, a witty and bright one. That's the last thing McCain needs right now. Historically, VP nominees do not help bring in regional votes (even from their home state). Nor do they increase appeal to voters outside of the nominee's party. The role VP nominees play in a campaign is to shore up the base -- to offer the base some strengths that the presidential nominee is known to lack. Reagan chose Bush I because he needed to reassure moderate Republicans. Bush I picked Dan Quayle to reassure conservatives. (Quayle was little known, so the ploy didn't work well.) The moderate Clinton picked Gore because he was a solid liberal. Compassionate conservative Bush II picked Cheney because he was known as a solid conservative with strong national security credentials. McCain will not pick Huckabee because Huckabee will do nothing to shore up McCain's relationship with the GOP conservative base. Two-thirds of Huckabee supporters listed McCain as their #2 choice, so McCain does not need Huckabee to get their support. In other words, picking Huckabee for his VP nominee would do nothing for McCain. Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) discusses some possible McCain running mates in this article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120243266768552299.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries . I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that McCain will not pick Huckabee as his running mate. While Huckabee might work well for Evangelicals, he clearly does not work well for many outside of that select club.

Among Republicans that label themselves conservative or very conservative, Huckabee is just another tax and spend liberal; albeit, a witty and bright one. That’s the last thing McCain needs right now.

Historically, VP nominees do not help bring in regional votes (even from their home state). Nor do they increase appeal to voters outside of the nominee’s party. The role VP nominees play in a campaign is to shore up the base — to offer the base some strengths that the presidential nominee is known to lack.

Reagan chose Bush I because he needed to reassure moderate Republicans. Bush I picked Dan Quayle to reassure conservatives. (Quayle was little known, so the ploy didn’t work well.) The moderate Clinton picked Gore because he was a solid liberal. Compassionate conservative Bush II picked Cheney because he was known as a solid conservative with strong national security credentials.

McCain will not pick Huckabee because Huckabee will do nothing to shore up McCain’s relationship with the GOP conservative base. Two-thirds of Huckabee supporters listed McCain as their #2 choice, so McCain does not need Huckabee to get their support. In other words, picking Huckabee for his VP nominee would do nothing for McCain.

Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) discusses some possible McCain running mates in this article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120243266768552299.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries .

]]> By: David http://www.davidjmiller.org/2008/keeping-the-race-alive/comment-page-1/#comment-7336 David Sun, 10 Feb 2008 04:34:58 +0000 http://www.davidjmiller.org/keeping-the-race-alive/#comment-7336 My post was really a summary of the various opinions I had read more than any kind of analysis of the race. Once the nomination is given it hardly matters who did or didn't win the nominating contests. The fact that Huckabee won't win the nomination means that regardless of the primary outcomes of the southern states the question those southern Republicans really face is whether to support McCain, support a democrat, or stay home in November. My post was really a summary of the various opinions I had read more than any kind of analysis of the race. Once the nomination is given it hardly matters who did or didn’t win the nominating contests. The fact that Huckabee won’t win the nomination means that regardless of the primary outcomes of the southern states the question those southern Republicans really face is whether to support McCain, support a democrat, or stay home in November.

]]> By: Melissa http://www.davidjmiller.org/2008/keeping-the-race-alive/comment-page-1/#comment-7331 Melissa Sat, 09 Feb 2008 20:29:30 +0000 http://www.davidjmiller.org/keeping-the-race-alive/#comment-7331 Your post also neglects the influence of the Bible belt. Although Huckabee is unlikely to win the Republican nomination, McCain is much too liberal for the South. The southern Republicans would never vote for a Mormon (Romney) if he had stayed in the election. Huckabee will carry the South based on those 2 reasons alone. He will probably withdraw after the primaries end there (or at least most of them). Your post also neglects the influence of the Bible belt. Although Huckabee is unlikely to win the Republican nomination, McCain is much too liberal for the South. The southern Republicans would never vote for a Mormon (Romney) if he had stayed in the election. Huckabee will carry the South based on those 2 reasons alone. He will probably withdraw after the primaries end there (or at least most of them).

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