Political Prognostication

A random train of thought today brought me to a very interesting destination. Let me preface this by saying that I am not among the ranks of those who would have anyone but Hillary for President although I have no intention of voting for her at this time. For all those in the anyone-but-Hillary camp here’s a hopeful prediction. This is the one and only real chance that Hillary will have to become President of the United States. If she is not elected in 2008 she would be facing an incumbent in 2012. Beating an incumbent president would be much harder than winning what is essentially an open seat in 2008 – unless the next Republican president was as unpopular as George W. Bush has become.

If she were to lose the Democratic nomination and the Democratic nominee were elected she would not even have a chance in 2012 (unless she were to become a Republican -which will never happen) and by 2016 she is unlikely to have the kind of support that she has enjoyed during the last decade. Also by 2016 she will be 68 years old which is older than nearly all the presidents we have ever had. So in reality this is her only real shot at moving back into the White House.

The other side to this story is that if Hillary were to be elected in 2008 she would be a very safe bet to serve two terms because she is smart enough politically to avoid any mistakes which would make her particularly vulnerable as an incumbent.

So my prediction is that Hillary will be President from 2008 – 2016 or else she will never be President.

About David

David is the father of 8 extremely organized children (4 girls / 4 boys) who is constantly seeking answers to tough questions related to parenting, education and politics while moonlighting for 40 hours each week as a technology professional. He also enjoys cooking, gardening, and sports.
This entry was posted in politics and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.